Material existing and emerging risks to the Barclays Bank Group’s future performance
The Barclays Bank Group has identified a broad range of risks to which its businesses are exposed. Material risks are those to which senior management
pay particular attention and which could cause the delivery of the Barclays Bank Group’s strategy, results of operations, financial condition and/or
prospects to differ materially from expectations. Emerging risks are those which have unknown components, the impact of which could crystallise over
a longer time period. In addition, certain other factors beyond the Barclays Bank Group’s control, including escalation of terrorism or global conflicts,
natural disasters, pandemics and similar events, although not detailed below, could have a similar impact on the Barclays Bank Group.
Material existing and emerging risks potentially impacting more than one principal risk
i)Risks relating to the impact of COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has had, and continues to have, a material impact on businesses around the world and the economic environments in which
they operate. Additionally, the impacts of the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and post-recovery environment, from a
commercial, regulatory and risk perspective, could be significantly different to past crises and persist for a prolonged period. As a result, there are a
number of factors associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global economies that have had and could continue to have a material
adverse effect on the profitability, capital and liquidity of the Barclays Bank Group.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruption to the Barclays Bank Group's customers, suppliers and staff globally. Most jurisdictions in which the
Barclays Bank Group operates implemented severe restrictions on the movement of their respective populations, with a resultant significant impact on
economic activity in those jurisdictions. While a number of restrictions have been eased with the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination programmes, others
still remain in place and future developments are highly uncertain. In some jurisdictions, restrictions that had been previously lifted were re-imposed in
response to a resurgence in cases. These decisions are being taken by the governments of individual jurisdictions (including through the
implementation of emergency powers) and impacts (including any subsequent lifting, extension or reimposition of restrictions) may vary from
jurisdiction to jurisdiction and/or within jurisdictions. It remains unclear how the COVID-19 pandemic will evolve through 2022 (including whether
there will be further waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether COVID-19 vaccines continue to prove effective, whether further new strains of
COVID-19 will emerge and whether, and in what manner, additional restrictions will be imposed and/or existing restrictions extended) and the Barclays
Bank Group continues to monitor the situation closely. However, despite the COVID-19 contingency plans established by the Barclays Bank Group, the
ability to conduct business may be adversely affected by disruptions to infrastructure and supply chains, business processes and technology services,
resulting from the unavailability of staff due to illness or the failure of third parties to supply services. This may cause significant customer detriment,
costs to reimburse losses incurred by the Barclays Bank Group’s customers, potential litigation costs (including regulatory fines, penalties and other
sanctions), and reputational damage.
In many of the jurisdictions in which the Barclays Bank Group operates, schemes were initiated by central banks, national governments and regulators
to provide financial support to parts of the economy most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid introduction and varying nature of these
support schemes, as well as customer expectations, required the Barclays Bank Group to implement large-scale changes in a short period of time,
leading to an increase in certain risks faced by the Barclays Bank Group, including operational risk, conduct risk, reputation risk and fraud risk. These
risks are likely to be heightened further as and when those government and other support schemes expire, are withdrawn or are no longer supported.
Furthermore, the impact from participating in government and central bank-supported loan and other financing schemes may be exacerbated if the
Barclays Bank Group is required by any government or regulator to offer forbearance or additional financial relief to borrowers or if the Barclays Bank
Group is unable to rely on guarantees provided by governments in connection with financial support schemes.
As these schemes and other financial support schemes provided by national governments (such as job retention and furlough schemes, payment
deferrals and mass lending schemes) expire, are withdrawn or are no longer supported, there is a risk that economic growth and employment may be
negatively impacted which may, in turn, impact the Barclays Bank Group’s results of operations and profitability. In addition, the Barclays Bank Group
may experience a higher volume of defaults and delinquencies in certain portfolios which may negatively impact the Barclays Bank Group’s RWAs, level
of impairment and, in turn, capital position, and may initiate collection and enforcement actions to recover defaulted debts. The inception of large scale
collections and recovery programmes (including the use of third party debt collection agents) may also create significant risk if (because of the
complexity, speed and scale of these programmes) defaulting borrowers are harmed by the Barclays Bank Group’s conduct which may also give rise to
civil legal proceedings, including class actions, regulatory censure, potentially significant fines and other sanctions, and reputational damage. Other legal
disputes may also arise between the Barclays Bank Group and defaulting borrowers relating to matters such as breaches or enforcement of legal rights
or obligations arising under loan and other credit agreements. Adverse findings in any such matters may result in the Barclays Bank Group’s rights not
being enforced as intended.
Changes in macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment have a significant impact on the modelling of expected
credit losses (ECLs) by the Barclays Bank Group. As a result, the Barclays Bank Group experienced higher ECLs in 2020 compared to prior periods
though this trend was reversed in 2021 as economic conditions partially recovered. The economic environment remains uncertain and future
impairment charges may be subject to further volatility (including from changes to macroeconomic variable forecasts) depending on the longevity of
the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures and the continued efficacy of any COVID-19 vaccines, as well as the longer term
effectiveness of central bank, government and other support measures. For further details on macroeconomic variables used in the calculation of ECLs,
refer to the credit risk performance section. In addition, ECLs may be adversely impacted by increased levels of default for single name exposures in
certain sectors directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic (such as the retail, airline, and hospitality and leisure sectors).
Furthermore, the Barclays Bank Group relies on models to support a broad range of business and risk management activities, including informing
business decisions and strategies, measuring and limiting risk, valuing exposures (including the calculation of impairment), conducting stress testing
and assessing capital adequacy. Models are, by their nature, imperfect and incomplete representations of reality because they rely on assumptions and
inputs, and so they may be subject to errors affecting the accuracy of their outputs and/or misused. This may be exacerbated when dealing with
unprecedented scenarios, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the lack of reliable historical reference points and data. For further details on model
risk, refer to ‘(vi) Model risk’ below.
There can be no assurance that economic activity will return to pre-pandemic levels and, accordingly, there could be further adverse impacts on the
Barclays Bank Group’s income and profitability caused by lower lending and transaction volumes due to volatility or weakness in the capital markets.
Furthermore, in order to support lending activity to promote economic growth, governments and/or regulators may limit management’s flexibility in